Secure and Plentiful?
Topic: Energy/depletion
Officials from Saudi Arabia’s oil industry reinforced claims that the Kingdom has immense reserves that easily will produce oil, even at double the current rate, for decades to come. They issued this grandly optimistic assessment at an April 27 conference sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. A story summarizing the remarks of the Saudi officials may be found here. Also note that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan added some very interesting remarks as well.
The sheer bravado of the Saudi claims concerns Matthew Simmons, an energy investment banker and Cheney Task Force insider. A 1/2-hour video of some candid reactions by Simmons is available here.
SIMMONS: “I was really surprised at the passion by which they [the Saudi officials] felt annoyed that someone had the audacity to even raise the issue that they might not be able to do what they have done for the last 70 years…. [the Saudis say:] ‘Our reserves are so enormous that it’s an insult for anyone to even raise the question’ … ”
Show me the oil
The following is a collection of stories on oil prices and supplies, many from the New York Times (you’ll need to register there to see the stories), that I was studying for a major posting early last month. Well, events caught up with me and I never got it done. So I offer this list as interesting reading and I may have additional comments on them later.
I’m especially interested in the Yergin position. He is dismissive of oil “peaking”. But how and when are the great new supplies he believes in going to come on line as they will have to in order to satisfy increasing world demand? There has now been over four years of tight supply and high prices since the year 2000 when world oil production began to plateau. Why have these conditions not led to supply easing, despite the vigorous investment the high prices have brought? See the Simmons reference for a very interesting counter analysis–so where is the oil then?
Imagining a $7-a-Gallon Future
By Daniel Yergin; Published in NYT; April 4, 2004
2003’s constant surprises may not be finished
By Matthew R. Simmons, Chairman and CEO, Simmons & Company International, Houston; Published by WorldOil.com; February 2004.
Average U.S. Gasoline Price at Pump Reaches Record High
By Kenneth N. Gilpin; Published in NYT; March 24, 2004
Kerry Is Sticking With Plan to Raise Auto Fuel Efficiency
By Danny Hakim; Published in NYT; March 26, 2004
Cheney Tax Plan From ‘86 Would Have Raised Gas Prices
By Richard A. Oppel Jr.; Published in NYT; April 6, 2004
Saudis Push Plan for Cut in Production by OPEC
By Simon Romero; Published in NYT; March 31, 2004
Peering into oil’s future: Experts try to predict when the world will start running low on the natural resource that keeps all the engines running
Verne Kopytoff, SF Chronicle Staff Writer; Sunday, March 21, 2004