Iran war plan?
Alarming if true
Via Atrios and from an interesting original source — the August 1 print issue of Pat Buchanan’s organ The American Conservative (see this blog post, thank you justinlogan.com) — comes an article by CIA verteran Philip Giraldi. The article is quoted as follows:
The Pentagon, acting under instructions from Vice President Dick Cheney’s office, has tasked the United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM) with drawing up a contingency plan to be employed in response to another 9/11-type terrorist attack on the United States. The plan includes a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons. Within Iran there are more than 450 major strategic targets, including numerous suspected nuclear-weapons-program development sites. Many of the targets are hardened or are deep underground and could not be taken out by conventional weapons, hence the nuclear option. As in the case of Iraq, the response is not conditional on Iran actually being involved in the act of terrorism directed against the United States. Several senior Air Force officers involved in the planning are reportedly appalled at the implications of what they are doing–that Iran is being set up for an unprovoked nuclear attack–but no one is prepared to damage his career by posing any objections.
Let’s couple this unconfirmed report with the following excerpt of a June 20, 2005 Aljazeera piece written by former weapons inspector Scott Ritter:
But the facts speak of another agenda, that of war and the forceful removal of the theocratic regime, currently wielding the reigns of power in Tehran.
As with Iraq, the president has paved the way for the conditioning of the American public and an all-too-compliant media to accept at face value the merits of a regime change policy regarding Iran, linking the regime of the Mullah’s to an “axis of evil” (together with the newly “liberated” Iraq and North Korea), and speaking of the absolute requirement for the spread of “democracy” to the Iranian people.
…
The reality is that the US war with Iran has already begun. As we speak, American over flights of Iranian soil are taking place, using pilotless drones and other, more sophisticated, capabilities.
The violation of a sovereign nation’s airspace is an act of war in and of itself. But the war with Iran has gone far beyond the intelligence-gathering phase.
President Bush has taken advantage of the sweeping powers granted to him in the aftermath of 11 September 2001, to wage a global war against terror and to initiate several covert offensive operations inside Iran.
The most visible of these is the CIA-backed actions recently undertaken by the Mujahadeen el-Khalq, or MEK, an Iranian opposition group, once run by Saddam Hussein’s dreaded intelligence services, but now working exclusively for the CIA’s Directorate of Operations.
…
To the north, in neighbouring Azerbaijan, the US military is preparing a base of operations for a massive military presence that will foretell a major land-based campaign designed to capture Tehran.
Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld’s interest in Azerbaijan may have escaped the blinkered Western media, but Russia and the Caucasus nations understand only too well that the die has been cast regarding Azerbaijan’s role in the upcoming war with Iran….
Ritter goes on to examine the military advantages of launching air assaults and controlling airspace from bases in Azerbaijan. See Deep Blade postings here and here for more discussion of US machinations concerning Azerbaijan and the recently completed Caspian oil pipeline.
Meanwhile, Juan Cole has written about the “extremely friendly” state visit to Tehran paid by Iraq’s Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and “eight high-powered cabinet ministers”. Could the effect of this sudden advance for political Shiism hasten the US administration’s war plan? Only time will tell. However, Deep Blade’s comment from some months ago that “deep in the White House, the Iraq Shiite connection with Iran must be terribly troubling” and that the new Iraqi government might be “Shiite allies the US does not want” seems apropos now.
Let’s emphasize here that we do not know what the “crazies” in the Pentagon and Vice President’s office will do. Domination of Iran with invading US troops seems highly unlikely. But air power and nukes? That’s another matter. One thing we can surmise, however, is use of nukes against Iran would require an “attack event” on US soil after which there would be a punishing response. For propaganda purposes, the source of such a precipitating attack would be said to be Iran. And there would be no fact-check requirement on the president. We will have learned nothing from the last war.
Update 7/25: The date of the issue of The American Conservative in which the Iran war plan item appears is August 1, not July 18 as originally posted.
July 23rd, 2005 at 04:50
The attention and verification these neocon misfits get from so many supposedly thoughtful and informed people amazes me. These are the same amateurs who achieved the stunning glories in Kosovo. (the prelude to their wildly insane plans for the mideast)Twenty thousand sorties and 13 tanks destroyed and the usual lies of minimal losses. Two aircraft, yea sure. Their awesome planning and execution in Iraq. Now Iran, which it seems everyone assumes the US/Israel will simply bomb at will. Well, why have they not already bombed the nuclear facilities in Iran? Fear of international law or world opinion? Not hardly. Is it perhaps possible they cannot? At least not without devastating losses. Like all the ships in the Persian Gulf, all the troops in Iraq, Israel itself maybe? Not to mention blocking the flow of oil from the gulf and the economic impact upon many nations, very quickly. I guess no one has ever hear of Iran’s supersonic cruise missiles (we have absolutely no defense against these weapons) and their S-300 systems, which actually are deadly effective against aircraft, cruise missiles, etc. Holy cow, Putin sends Syria some Iglas and all of a sudden Israeli flyovers of Syria’s palace cease immediately. Who do they think they’re kidding. Not Putin and not Iran either.
July 23rd, 2005 at 05:37
Well, you do have to figure the US has more nukes than Iran. Does it stand to reason that if the “crazies” decide to break the country, that’s what they’d have to use to do it? As you suggest, Iran isn’t exactly the weak, battered, defenseless state as were Afghanistan and Iraq. Failure is not a deterrent to them. They still have a deep well of domestic jingoism and fear to draw upon. I do not claim to know what they will do, but the extreme would not surprise me. That’s the way they like it — you can’t rule out that they won’t go extreme.
July 24th, 2005 at 00:48
And pay the price? Cowards, as they truly are, bluff a lot. The days of the nuke as the ace the hole are over. The Russians are tired of us and Israel. Hence several countries now possess their unstoppable weapons. The supersonic cruise missiles, 200 mph torpedos, S-300 and S-400 systems. Their Topol-M has already rendered any ballistic missile defence moot. Either the real one (which is a farce) or any on the drawing boards. Meanwhile their anti missile system does work. And if needed the S-500 will be produced, money or no money.
July 25th, 2005 at 06:33
I agree, the article cited in this post could very well be some sort of bluff. And yes, this is something that could be slipped out there for strategic “psyops” purposes. And yes, the US is very unlikely to get into a fight with somebody who could actually fight back. Personally I do not know much about “unstoppable” Russian conventional weapons. So I would not readily conclude these weapons end the “ace-in-the-hole” role of nukes. Is it true that any of these missile or torpedo platforms could carry a nuke? Seems to me use of such would be a whole different ballgame than pure conventional bombs. Perhaps the salient fact is that in this day, the US has no guarantee of nuclear monopoly — maybe that’s enough to keep the Americans out of someone else’s country.
July 26th, 2005 at 06:34
i was both aghast & stunned when I read that snippet you posted. And overwhelmingly frightened. It seemed out of context. Then I found this article, which gives us more depth on the debate. It’s by the New Republic’s foreign editor, though it’s not published there - & is definitely worth reading. Iran: The Next War Is Closer Than You Think
I fear we’re in a race - Impeachment or Invade Iran. But that’s such a huge undertaking they’ll have to mobilize most of the West. Am I alone in expecting that recent bombings signal the beginning of that mobilization?
July 28th, 2005 at 16:40
An extensive thread on this topic may be found here at Daily Kos.
Juan Cole put up an interesting post today. Cole writes, “Rabid dreams are dreamt along the Potomac by persons who routinely foam at the mouth. Some, like gadfly warmonger Michael Ledeen, or wild-eyed Ghobanifar dupes like Congressman Congressman (?!) Curt Weldon (what is wrong with Pennsylvania?), are dying to get other Americans’ boys killed in the sands of Iran. For the rest of us, these reveries are nightmares. This nuclear scenario is a fleeting and insubstantial such bad dream, which can no more be implemented as policy than a Hollywood horror film could be.”
July 31st, 2005 at 06:28
Wow, Scotty McClellan says “we have made it very clear that Iran has a history of hiding their nuclear activity…” Does this mean BOOM? See video at Crooks and Liars here.
February 15th, 2007 at 01:41
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