Archive for October, 2005

Petrodollars

Sunday, October 16th, 2005

How money is created, where it goes

The New York Times says the stash in oil exporting countries like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela is enormous

This analysis is the kicker:

As more of the oil money is spent, the American economy may be left in a precarious position. Maurice Obstfeld, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, said, “If oil exporters lower their current account surplus, we will have to reduce our current account deficit.”

Odd to think that a result of Bush’s Jacksonian, Boltonist, anti-cooperative foreign policy is that America is at the mercy of financial decisions made in Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

Organic agriculture podcast

Sunday, October 16th, 2005

A new podcast has been posted at peacecast.us: ORGANIC AGRICULTURE IN MAINE — a talk by Russ Libby, Executive Director of MOFGA (Maine Organic Farmers and Gardeners Association) given Saturday October 15, 2005 at the Peace & Justice Center of Eastern Maine’s 16th annual Harvest Supper in Bangor, Maine.

Cockburn: be a gas guzzler

Sunday, October 16th, 2005

Alexander Cockburn unhinged?

I have benefited greatly from being a regular reader of Beat the Devil and Counterpunch for 22 years. But check out parts of Cockburn’s Oct. 15/16 weekend diary. They seem to read a little crazy:

The Virtues of Gas Guzzling:
Why I Don’t Believe in “Peak Oil”

Since I don’t believe in “peak oil” (the notion that world production is peaking and will soon slide, plunging the world into economic chaos) and regard oil “shortages” as contrivances by the oil companies and allied brokers and middlemen to run up the price, I fill my aging fleet of 50s and 60s era Chryslers with a light heart, although for longer trips these days I fill an 82 Mercedes 240D with diesel….Part of my light-heartedness comes from the fact that gas guzzling these days can be a revolutionary duty….guzzling keeps up overall oil demand, and hence oil prices, thus helping not only Venezuela but also Russia, which needs every rouble it can get….

Looks a bit scandalous from the point of view of a person who cares about the environment. But realize that I pulled these quotes out of context. When I look at his whole argument (go over to Counterpunch and do that), I’m going to agree with and defend Cockburn a bit.

While I do find his disbelief in peak oil unpersuasively argued — in large measure because he appears not to understand what he says he does not believe in — I take his point about buying fuel from Citgo stations in order to lend “revolutionary” support to Venezuela. The Pat Robertson quotes woven into this discussion are, well, brilliant in a way only Cockburn can be.

And I do see what he is doing in part — needling peak oil believers and the liberal environmentalists that he has a long history of reviling.

I’ll make public this friendly message I just sent him:

Dear Alex,

Naturally I agree completely with your call for mass action behind the revolutionary vanguard of Venezuelan fuel pumps.

But you make a common error concerning peak oil on one main account. “Peak oil” theory is often misunderstood to mean that the world is running out of petrol sometime soon. You see this misconception everywhere, from the film The Oil Factor to the question you asked, “And what of `peak oil’, the theory that oil is about to run out?”

In fact, just the opposite is true. “Peak oil” theory says that more oil is available worldwide today than there ever has been. We are, as Yergin and the folks at CERA say, awash in the stuff. However, whether an abiotic component exists or not, oil is depletable. An era will arise — my belief is that it will within a couple of decades — when there will be a permanent condition that not everyone gets as much of it as they want.

My feeling is that no accessible quantity of abiotic oil ever will replace the resource extracted from current major fields — all discovered no less than two and mostly at least four decades ago. Gold notwithstanding, I believe it is magical thinking to believe oil fields somehow refill from below. Every major exploration success of these last few decades has followed from the standard biotic theory instead. I think the score for abiotic oil is something like 80 very questionable barrels in a costly late-1980s Swedish experiment.

Beliefs aside, I do not know when a peak oil downslope condition will become permanent. So you are quite right to charge that recent price run-up has more to do with monopoly practices than genuine shortage. Remember, “peak” means we have a lot of the stuff around. But I will add that for whatever reason, the world currently appears to have zero spare oil production capacity. Take your pick of the reason-of-the-day from the business pages. The public data on production capacity is very poor, treated like state secrets in most countries. But would not this appearance be easier to maintain with at least an element of truth to the existence of a nearer-term “peak” condition? I would argue that such truth enables and enhances these monopoly practices, expressed after the giant Exxon-Mobil, BP-Amoco, and more recent Valero-Premcor mergers.

Another point of possible disagreement I have with your column is the potential for economic waves not unlike the 1970s shocks that followed US peak oil. Without some kind of un-destructive demand control and international cooperation, this condition could become economically devastating over time. I refer to food production specifically, now running at 10 fossil fuel calories per 1 food calorie produced. Use your imagination on the possible harms here.

Furthermore, it’s not hard to imagine competition of powerful states for their desired piece of a slowly shrinking pie. Popular policy pieces, like one by Robert D. Kaplan in the June 2005 issue of The Atlantic Monthly openly discuss the coming war with China and how the US is planning for it. Don’t we see in Iraq the beachhead of this policy for a coming era of resource competition? Quite obviously US planners have chosen raw force against the weakest targets for forward base-building — in a region well-endowed with the fuel the military itself needs — as the preferred strategic option. You’ve even written about this yourself in the summer of 2003, right?

On Brazil, are you serious? “Ethanol is an attractive alternative, as Brazil is proving” demands your immediate re-examination. Attractive for who? The cane growers or the destitute migrant workers they pay a couple dollars a day to do the cutting? The Brazillian ethanol model — while evidently returning more energy than it costs in energy to produce, a rare feat for ethanol production — is totally unsustainable and unscalable on a global basis. Corn ethanol cannot even make back the fossil energy used in its production. Ethanol is a big loser, energetically, socially, and environmentally, when it is viewed as a whole.

One more thing on Brazil — while it has a vigorous and technically advanced off-shore oil industry, it is a net oil importer. Despite the hype about ethanol Brazil uses a rather large 3 million barrels per day of oil, importing at least 1/3 of its consumption.

Finally, I do agree with you about the notion that the price of oil could drop, and drop sharply. A little thing called demand destruction could do this. That’s why it is so important for American screens to be filled with demand-generating pictures of mighty trucks and SUVs all the time. Unfortunately, this situation could be accompanied by a general recession that really could get quite nasty if the real estate bubble bursts in an environment of sharply higher interests rates, as petrodollars disappear from the deficit financing system.

Eric

PS. You wrote this just to bring a phalanx of peak oilers out of the woodwork so you could laugh at them, right?


Update 10/17: I slightly misquoted the oil production/consumption figures for Brazil. According to 2004 figures, Brazil consumes 2.2 million barrels per day (no. 7 in the world) and produces 1.1 million barrels per day. So the actual figure is that Brazil imports 1/2 of its oil.

Friday garden blogging

Friday, October 14th, 2005

Inundation


Heavy rain last Saturday and Sunday throughout the NE


Weather today is dank, keeping these open all day


The rain cup is overflowing

Can we do this again and not go crazy?

FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
233 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2005

…HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY…

.A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL SPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY…AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

Considering soil saturation, I figure two more inches outside will fill the basement office of Deep Blade Journal with 1/4 inch of water. The pumps, the wet vac, the mops, and the dehumidifier are ready….

Pro-war/anti-war arguments

Friday, October 14th, 2005

A discussion on a pro-war blog I foolishly got into (yep, I started it) is found here.

It’s reasonably intelligent over there, even if the reactionaries are rather arrogant. I didn’t pull too many punches either, so when they’re not calling me a traitor or crazy, surely they would say the same about me.

They have a very common kind of military fantasist view… “only America could deal with Big Bad Saddam”… and they are quite informed on some of the operational aspects of the war. That’s worthwhile stuff. But especially they follow the pronouncements ostensibly by (link to Kurt Nimmo, who doubts the pedigree) Al Qaeda and other Islamist groups with Cold-War level hysteria. They eagerly salivate for the next Zawahiri or Zarqawi “statement”. Guess it makes it easier to love the “gloves off” Terror War.

I find it rather amusing that they have zero grasp of the US economic plans for Iraq, the Downing Street memos, or any of the official documents — while making me out as some sort of unsubstantiated whacko.

Panic button follow-up

Wednesday, October 12th, 2005

News Dissector dissects last week’s New York subway scare

Plot was a fraud emanating from an unreliable informant in Iraq. Imagine that! The Dissector also examines the “whois” question of the Iraqi resistance and more talk about a US attack on Iran, among other items. Thanks Danny, and thanks for plugging peacecast.us.

New peak oil podcast posted

Tuesday, October 11th, 2005

Please visit peacecast.us for a newly available podcast, PEAK OIL: ARE ENERGY CRISES, MORE WARS, AND BREAKDOWN OF CAPITALISM COMING SOON? Yes, it’s my own talk, but some people tell me it was actually okay.

Election engineering II

Monday, October 10th, 2005

Voting blind

Washington Post, As Talks Continue, Many Iraqis Lack Copy of Charter:

As outraged would-be voters protested at still not being shown copies of Iraq’s proposed constitution, U.S. and Arab diplomats bore down on Sunnis, Shiites and Kurdish leaders Monday in Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone to make last-ditch changes to the charter that would overcome Sunni opposition.

Not unlike the parliamentary election last January when names of candidates were not revealed to the electorate & fear was pervasive, Iraqis are being asked to vote for a new constitution most have not seen, in a climate of fear and violence. Meanwhile U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad from his post in Saddam’s old fortress conducts insider “consultations” during “a sit-down dinner to break the daily fast of the holy month of Ramadan” and “gatherings where Arab leaders exerted behind-the-scenes pressure.”

The process is deeply flawed. At once it is tragic and hilarious that Khalilzad and collaborators think they can keep on writing provisions just a few days ahead of the vote. Saddam could be having this election.

The situation cannot be corrected unless the Americans do what they will never do, give up their war spoils and butt out. But of course the people of Iraq so deeply want to take control of their own destiny — and many will display this by voting in the referrendum anyway — whether anybody understand what they are voting on or not.

The Sy Hersh article revealing the truth about the American hand in the process that inevitably will be published — like this one from July concerning the January election — will be ignored by main US media.

Bridges bombed, hospital invaded

Saturday, October 8th, 2005

A week of destroying Iraq in order to save it…


Refugees from Alqaim, Western Iraq — recently under US assault. Voting will be the first thing on their minds.

The notion that there is a large flow of insurgent “foreign fighters” from Syria to Iraq has been disputed, even in very conservative quarters. So why is it the official US military stance that recent destruction of Euphrates River bridges in western Iraq is for the purpose of disrupting the flow of such insurgents eastward towards the capital? This language is stenographically repeated across the media, including in today’s Guardian:

The Euphrates sweep was the latest effort to disrupt the flow of fighters and arms from the Syrian border to the capital. Major General Rick Lynch, a military spokesman, said warplanes had bombed eight bridges. “There were 12 bridges from the Syrian border to Ramadi. Were is the operative term. There are now four. Those four that remain are under the control of the Iraqi security forces and coalition forces.”

Infrastructure destruction in Iraq by the US occupiers is in fact an incredible development. According to this post on Daily Kos,

Why is this a big deal? Because we are actually destroying infrastructure in a country we occupy. We are saying that the military value of the bridges to the insurgancy is greater than the value to us in either a military or economic/social way. This can be compared to the use of chemicals to destroy the jungle in Vietnam. Not because it caused cancer but because it was the long term destruction of some portion of the country.

Last week Juan Cole posted a Gilbert Achcar piece quoting sources that at the very least call the US military justifications for these actions into serious doubt. Achcar first refers to reports questioning the prevalence of “foreign fighters” (though one has a self-interested Saudi pedigree) and then offers an alternate analysis of the unspoken motivations behind the US attacks, an analysis that agrees with that of yesterday’s Deep Blade post:

The [Saudi Kingdom’s] campaign also included the release of a Saudi-sponsored (and co-written) study by the CSIS, an unofficial think-tank in Washington, titled “Saudi Militants in Iraq: Assessment and Kingdom’s Response.” (Much case was made of this study because it said that foreign fighters were only a minority of the “insurgents,” as if it were a scoop.) It “estimated” (more a guessing-game than anything else) the proportion of foreign fighters in Iraq at 4-6% of a total of “insurgents” put at 30 000, of whom 12% from the Saudi Kingdom (1-2% of the total).

Al-Hayat for 9/28 reports figures given by Iraqi officials on the foreigners detained in Iraq: according to the officials quoted, US forces in Iraq hold in detention over 10,000 persons, of whom only 210 are foreigners. Of those, the largest group by far is made up of Saudis (35%). Syrians, Tunisians and Libyans together amount to 15%, Palestinians and Jordanians are 10%, and Egyptians and Sudanese 5%.

The CSIS report (pdf here), co-authored by hard-right military realist Anthony Cordesman states that,

By all reports, the [Iraqi] insurgency is largely homegrown. This is not simply the view of US experts, based on estimates emanating from Iraq, at least 90% of the fighters are Iraqi, in contrast to some allegations that the insurgency is being mainly fueled from abroad.

Achcar goes on to compare the present pre-vote situation with that of last November, when the US created chaos in Falluja in order to “diminish the legitimacy of the outcome of the January 30 elections.” In support of this notion, Achcar provides quotes by important Sunni leaders:

…Al-Hayat reports that two main figures of the Arab Sunni community in Iraq, Saleh al-Mutlak, the man leading the campaign against the draft constitution, and Issam al-Rawi, a member of the influential Association of Muslim Scholars, have accused US occupation forces and Iraqi governmental forces of trying — by the full-fledged offensive they launched in the Arab Sunni province of Al-Anbar, starting with the assault on Tal Afar — to prevent the participation of Arab Sunnis in the referendum, thus pushing them to call for a boycott.

I recommend reading of the entire Achcar piece. It seems to me that the US military is creating a climate of fear, intimidation, and clamp-down against movement of the ordinary residents in areas under attack. There is little hope that any of these actions will for very long suppress opposition fighters, but opposition voters surely will be suppressed. There is even more support for this notion…

US attacks hospital in Haditha
Real reporting on these US attacks is scarce. But here is a gem from an interesting October 4 Washington Post story:

Mohammed Hadithi, the head of the Iraqi Red Crescent Society in Haditha, charged the U.S. troops violated the rights of residents during the assault. The Marines “neglected the humanitarian standards,” he said. “If the American people come and see the army they are proud of doing that to unarmed women and children, they would have disowned the army because those they are looking for have escaped hours before they came and attacked.”

His accusation could not independently verified.

At Haditha Hospital, Dr. Abdul Qaider Obaidi, said the [US] Marines also broke into the hospital and searched the facility, arresting the director, Waleed Hadeethi and his assistant. Obaidi said the Marines accused the two men of treating al Qaeda fighters. “They are using the hospital as a base for the combat operations,” he added. Obaidi said he had no information about civilian casualties.

Like during its Falluja atrocities of November 2004, the US military appears to be targeting hospitals (in abject contravention of Article 18 of the Fourth Geneva Convention). They are always careful to make accusations that hospitals they attack support fighters, thus giving them an Article 19 case that such facilities are not in fact protected. But Article 19 requires fair warning, and proof is never offered. And the fact that a hospital treats wounded fighters does not automatically remove its protection under international law.

This then begs the question — Why it is so important for the Americans to target hospitals? The real reason is that the Pentagon does not want them to become a source of news about heavy civilian casualties. This lesson learned by the military was quite shamelessly annunciated in the New York Times on November 8, 2004, during last year’s destruction of Falluja.

But if you read this CNN report, you’d think that most residents of Haditha during this year’s raids were on friendly terms with the American invaders:

“The U.S. forces said they were here to free us from Saddam, but now I am a prisoner in my own home,” said one resident. Marines assured him it was OK to leave his house if he wanted.

The Marines said they hope that the new Iraqi army can follow them into Haditha, a town the U.S. military has said has been a crossroads for insurgent fighters coming into Iraq. Another resident, a one-time Iraqi army officer under Saddam, said he would welcome a permanent Marine and army presence in the city. “There is slaughter here by men in black masks,” he said.

Most civilians appeared to be cooperating with Marines who are searching some houses. In one instance, residents were pointing out bombs to the Marines.

I am highly skeptical of this kind of reporting. I suspect that while most residents of the towns subject to the American sweeps would remain frightened in their homes and would not resist the invaders with violence, most would in fact support guerrilla forces opposing the Americans. Meanwhile, however, the true military objective is to keep residents so scared and immobilized — through attacks on hospitals and the blowing up of bridges — that their “no” votes on the constitution will be supressed. It’s an ideal Bush-type election strategy.

Heartbreak
Please read this for story and photos of the refugee situation caused by the US attacks. Shame on the mainstream media for failing to analyze US motivations behind the assaults — beyond the military’s own self-serving propaganda — and then ignoring the consequences.

Friday garden blogging

Friday, October 7th, 2005

Change is coming


These old broccoli blossoms attract lots of bees on warm days.


Great year for carrots, but some are too big to come out whole.

The last week has been incredibly warm and summer-like. Humidity has been too high for comfort. Fall foliage is just getting started — at least two weeks late — and there still hardly exists a changed leaf in the yard. But a big soaker rain (flood watch in effect) and much cooler temperatures are said to be in store, rain partly due to the remnant of Tropical Storm Tammy.